What You Will Learn!
- Apply critical thinking skills during the analytic process
- Demonstate the role of probabilities in predictive analysis
- Create and use probability trees
- Create and use utility trees and utility matrices
- Create and use an advanced utility matrix
- Understand how Bayes applies to intelligence predictions
- Use Excel to apply Bayes to aid intelligence analysis
Description
The views expressed in this course are the instructor's alone and do not reflect the official position of the U.S. Government, the Intelligence Community, or the Department of Defense.
This course builds on the Level 1 and Level 2 courses on Intelligence Analysis to teach the student how to think in probabilities and structure their analysis to produce predictive intelligence. Upon completion of the course, the graduate will be able to use MS Excel to apply the Bayes Theorem to participate in forecasting tournaments and make specific intelligence predictions to prevent surprise.
Who Should Attend!
- This is an expert level course and is designed for an experienced intelligence analyst
Tags
- Critical Thinking
- Bayesian Statistics
- Intelligence Analysis (security)
Subscribers
6605
Lectures
18
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